# October 2026 REM Market Call: speaker notes

Frozen October 27, 2026, the day before the Bank of Canada decision. https://www.homiesai.com/research/canada-housing-market-call-october-2026

## SLIDE 1: Two Canadas. One rate hike away.

OPEN
September sales slipped, Ontario led the drop, and fixed mortgage rates jumped before the Bank of Canada did anything. Now oil is over $100, China's market is in a bear market, and traders put the odds of a hike on October 28 at about 74%. Here's what the data says and what to tell clients.

Canada is two housing markets: Ontario and B.C. are soft, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are firmer but cooling. The next leg depends on rates, and rates are going the wrong way for Ontario households that are already falling behind.

• CREA September: SA sales fell 2.3% and new listings 1.8%. The SNLR is 48.8%, months of inventory 4.9. Balanced on paper, leaning buyer.
• Prices split on the old fault line. Ontario (−4.3%) and B.C. (−2.4%) fell year over year; Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland rose. But sales fell in eight of ten provinces, and inventory is building in Quebec and Manitoba.
• GTA: sales and new listings both fell. Inventory is lower than last year (actives −11.1% in September) but still nearly triple 2021. Five of six segments were down on price in the first three weeks of October.
• Credit stress is concentrated in Ontario. Mortgage delinquencies are still rare nationally (0.22% of accounts) but rose 52% in Ontario and 58% in Toronto. Take Ontario out and the national rise in homeowners' other-credit delinquency nearly disappears.
• Inflation is a fuel problem. CPI 3.1%, gasoline +27.8%, shelter +1.8%, core near 2%. WTI hit $110 on October 19.
• History says central banks hike into recessions more often than they land softly. Canada did it in 1981 and 1990. Housing paid first through rates, then through jobs.

## SLIDE 2: September sales slipped, and new listings slipped with them

01 · CREA September

STATS
−2.3%: Sales m/m (SA)
−1.8%: New listings m/m (SA)
−7.7%: Sales vs Sept 2025 (actual)
$666,538: Avg price, −1.6% y/y

OPEN
September was a step back. The slow crawl back stopped.

• SA sales −2.3% m/m, new listings −1.8%. Both down.
• Actual sales 36,657, down 7.7% from a year ago.
• Average price $666,538, down 1.6% y/y and about 19% under the Feb 2022 peak.
• CREA's chair pointed at Ontario and at fixed rates.

CAVEAT
Canada (computed) aggregates reporting boards and can differ slightly from CREA's published national headline.

NEXT
September sales are back at 2008–2012 levels

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® Systems data (Homies stats feed) · 2026-09
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

## SLIDE 3: September sales are back at 2008–2012 levels

01 · Same month, every year

STATS
36,657: Sept 2026 sales
−7.7%: vs Sept 2025
6th: Weakest Sept since 2007
32,676: Weakest: Sept 2012

OPEN
Same-month history is the cleanest way to read a seasonal market.

• Pull up the bars. 2020 and 2021 were the outliers, not the baseline.
• Sixth-weakest September since 2007. Five were lower: 2012, 2010, 2022, 2023 and 2008 (by 155 sales).
• Volume this low hits agent income first.

CAVEAT
Same-month comparisons avoid seasonal distortion but not changes in board coverage.

NEXT
Balanced on paper, sliding toward buyers

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® Systems data (Homies stats feed) · 2026-09
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

## SLIDE 4: Balanced on paper, sliding toward buyers

01 · Balance

STATS
48.8%: SNLR (SA)
49.1%: August
54.7%: CREA long-term avg
45–65%: CREA balanced band

OPEN
Balanced is an average. Nobody lives there.

• 48.8% SA, down from 49.1%.
• Below the 54.7% long-term average for a while now.
• Use the local SNLR, not this one, with clients.

CAVEAT
CREA describes 45%–65% as the balanced range; the long-term average is CREA's published figure.

NEXT
4.9 months of supply: not a buyer's market yet, nowhere near tight

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® Systems data (Homies stats feed) · 2026-09
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

## SLIDE 5: 4.9 months of supply: not a buyer's market yet, nowhere near tight

01 · Supply

STATS
4.9: Months of inventory (SA)
5.0: Average since 1997
~200k: Active listings
+1.8%: Actives y/y

OPEN
Supply is normal. The problem is demand at today's rates.

• 4.9 months SA, right on the long-run average.
• Actives about 200,000, up 1.8% y/y.
• The relief valve is new listings falling. Sellers are holding back.

CAVEAT
Average is a Homies calculation from the SA series, not a CREA threshold.

NEXT
Two Canadas: same Bank of Canada, opposite outcomes

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® Systems data (Homies stats feed) · 2026-09
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

## SLIDE 6: Two Canadas: same Bank of Canada, opposite outcomes

01 · Two Canadas

STATS
77: Hamilton-Burlington
81: Toronto
121: Edmonton
126: Calgary

OPEN
If you remember one chart, make it this one.

• Jan 2022 = 100. Hamilton-Burlington 77, Toronto 81.
• Calgary 126, Edmonton 121. Ottawa flat at 100.
• Average prices, so mix matters. Direction is clear anyway.
• CREA's words: price gains elsewhere are moderating. That's less good. It isn't bad yet.

CAVEAT
Average prices move with the mix of homes sold. Use the MLS® HPI for like-for-like price claims.

NEXT
Prices split along the old fault line

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® Systems data (Homies stats feed) · 2026-09
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

## SLIDE 7: Prices split along the old fault line

01 · Prices by province

STATS
−4.3%: Ontario
−2.4%: B.C.
+5.2%: Alberta
+7.0%: N.L.

OPEN
Price is where the two Canadas show up.

• Ontario −4.3%, B.C. −2.4% y/y.
• Alberta +5.2%, Manitoba +4.5%, Saskatchewan +3.5%.
• Quebec +2.2%, but watch its inventory on the next slide.

CAVEAT
Average price is mix-sensitive; small provinces swing on low volume.

NEXT
Sales fell almost everywhere

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® Systems data (Homies stats feed) · 2026-09
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

## SLIDE 8: Sales fell almost everywhere

01 · Sales by province

STATS
8 of 10: Provinces with fewer sales
−8.3%: Ontario
−5.9%: Alberta
+6.9%: P.E.I.

OPEN
Don't tell clients the Prairies are booming. They're selling fewer homes too.

• Only P.E.I. and Newfoundland & Labrador sold more.
• Ontario −8.3%, B.C. −9.0%, Alberta −5.9%.
• Firm prices on lower volume can turn quickly.

CAVEAT
Actual (NSA) same-month comparison.

NEXT
Inventory is building in places people call 'firm'

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® Systems data (Homies stats feed) · 2026-09
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

## SLIDE 9: Inventory is building in places people call 'firm'

01 · Inventory by province

STATS
+20.7%: Quebec actives
+19.1%: Manitoba
−4.2%: Ontario
−5.1%: B.C.

OPEN
This is the early-warning slide for the 'firm' markets.

• Quebec actives +20.7%, Manitoba +19.1%, Nova Scotia +13.4%.
• Ontario −4.2%, B.C. −5.1%: sellers pulling listings.
• Rising inventory plus falling sales is how price gains end.

CAVEAT
End-of-month active listings; Ontario and B.C. still hold far more inventory relative to sales.

NEXT
GTA: fewer sales and far fewer new listings than last September

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® Systems data (Homies stats feed) · 2026-09
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

## SLIDE 10: GTA: fewer sales and far fewer new listings than last September

02 · GTA September

STATS
5,040: Sales (−9.9% y/y)
16,500: New listings (−14.3%)
37.8%: SNLR (trend)
$917,600: HPI benchmark (−4.4%)

OPEN
The GTA is quieter on both sides. Buyers and sellers are both waiting.

• TRREB September: 5,040 sales, down 9.9%.
• 16,500 new listings, down 14.3%.
• SNLR trend 37.8% vs 34.6% a year ago.
• Composite benchmark $917,600, down 4.4%.

CAVEAT
TRREB area boundaries differ from the CMA and from CREA's Toronto board total.

NEXT
GTA inventory: below last year, still triple 2021

SOURCE
Homies Research, using TRREB Market Watch (all TRREB areas) · 2026-09
https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/

## SLIDE 11: GTA inventory: below last year, still triple 2021

02 · GTA inventory

STATS
26,131: Active listings, Sept
−11.1%: vs Sept 2025
2.8×: vs Sept 2021
−9.3%: Oct actives y/y (REALM)

OPEN
Correction to my own thesis: GTA inventory is not rising year over year. It's high and slightly lower.

• September actives 26,131, down 11.1% y/y.
• Partial October (to Oct 26): 26,743 actives, −9.3% y/y.
• Sellers are withdrawing rather than chasing price down.
• Listing into fewer competitors can beat waiting for spring.

CAVEAT
Partial-month October data (REALM) points the same way: actives below 2025.

NEXT
Months of inventory: flat on the year, high for the GTA

SOURCE
Homies Research, using TRREB Market Watch (all TRREB areas) · 2026-09
https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/

## SLIDE 12: Months of inventory: flat on the year, high for the GTA

02 · GTA months of supply

STATS
4.6: MOI (trend), Sept
4.6: Sept 2025
2.3: Sept 2019
4.96 vs 5.53: Oct MOI, REALM

OPEN
MOI didn't rise this year. It rose in 2023 and 2024 and stayed there.

• TRREB trend MOI 4.6, same as last September.
• Partial October combined MOI 4.96 vs 5.53 a year ago.
• Condo vs freehold is the real split in the 416.

CAVEAT
TRREB publishes MOI as a trend measure.

NEXT
GTA benchmark price: still sliding

SOURCE
Homies Research, using TRREB Market Watch (all TRREB areas) · 2026-09
https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/

## SLIDE 13: GTA benchmark price: still sliding

02 · GTA price

STATS
$917,600: HPI composite
−4.4%: y/y
$1,006,409: Avg price
−5.0%: Avg price y/y

OPEN
Prices are lower than last year. The payment is still higher. That's the trap.

• Composite benchmark $917,600, down 4.4%.
• Average $1,006,409, down 5.0%.
• Fixed rates jumped in September, wiping out the price relief.

CAVEAT
Average price moves with mix; the benchmark controls for it.

NEXT
October so far: five of six GTA segments down on price

SOURCE
Homies Research, using TRREB Market Watch (all TRREB areas) · 2026-09
https://trreb.ca/market-data/market-watch/

## SLIDE 14: October so far: five of six GTA segments down on price

02 · October so far

STATS
3,793: Sales, Oct 1–26 (−3.2%)
10,032: New listings (−7.0%)
365: PoS/mortgage keyword listings
842 vs 601: PropTx keyword matches y/y

OPEN
First three weeks of October from Robert Marsiglio's briefing.

• Sales 3,793 (−3.2%), new listings 10,032 (−7.0%).
• York −7.6% and Peel −7.4% on average price.
• 365 listings with seller-name PoS or mortgage keywords, 1.36% of actives.
• PropTx keyword matches 842 vs 601 a year earlier. A count, not a legal status.

CAVEAT
Private briefing shared with Daniel; partial-month REALM data, not TRREB Market Watch. Average price is mix-sensitive.

NEXT
Mortgage delinquency is rising fastest where prices were hottest

SOURCE
Robert Marsiglio GTA Market Briefing (corrected), Toronto MLS via REALM, first three weeks of October 2026 · 2026-10-26
https://www.homiesai.com/research/canada-housing-market-call-october-2026#gta

## SLIDE 15: Mortgage delinquency is rising fastest where prices were hottest

03 · Mortgage stress

STATS
0.22%: Canada 90+ (accounts)
+52%: Ontario y/y (0.36%)
+58%: Toronto (0.38%)
0.64%: Brampton

OPEN
Low rates, steep slope. The slope is what matters.

• Q1 2026: 0.22% of mortgage accounts 90+ days late, below pre-pandemic.
• Balance rate 0.28%, up 32% y/y.
• Ontario +52% to 0.36%. B.C. +36% to 0.25%.
• Equifax Q2: Ontario 90+ missed payments up every quarter for four years.

CAVEAT
Rates are still low: 0.22% of accounts nationally, 0.36% Ontario, 0.38% Toronto, 0.64% Brampton. City figures are from press coverage of Equifax data, not the PDF.

NEXT
Cards and auto cooled. Ontario homeowners didn't.

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Equifax Canada Q1 2026 Market Pulse (Canada, Ontario, B.C.) and Equifax figures reported by Global News (cities) · 2026-Q1
https://assets.equifax.com/marketing/canada/assets/q1-2026-consumer-trends-report-en.pdf

## SLIDE 16: Cards and auto cooled. Ontario homeowners didn't.

03 · Other credit

STATS
$2.68T: Consumer debt (+4.2%)
1.76%: Non-mortgage 90+
4.19%: Cards 90+
0.86%: Ontario homeowners, +27%

OPEN
People pay the mortgage last to miss. Watch the other bills first.

• Non-mortgage 90+ eased to 1.76% from 1.79%, still above 1.70% a year ago.
• Cards 4.19%, auto 1.10%.
• Mortgage holders' non-mortgage 90+: 0.77% Canada, 0.86% Ontario.
• Ex-Ontario the y/y rise is 2.1%.

CAVEAT
Different populations on one chart. Read each bar as its own rate, not a ranking of risk.

NEXT
Bank mortgage arrears: up from the floor, still low

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Equifax Canada Q2 2026 Market Pulse release · 2026-Q2
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/press-releases/2026/08/24/non-mortgage-delinquency-growth-slows-in-second-quarter-but-ontario-homeowners-remain-under-pressure/

## SLIDE 17: Bank mortgage arrears: up from the floor, still low

03 · Bank arrears

STATS
0.28%: CBA 90+ arrears, Feb
0.14%: Low, June 2022
0.65%: Peak, Feb 1992
2×: vs the 2022 low

OPEN
Arrears are low. They've also doubled, and they always lag.

• CBA 90+ arrears 0.28% in February 2026.
• Low was 0.14% in mid-2022.
• Peak 0.65% in early 1992, two years after rates topped 14%.

CAVEAT
Covers CBA member banks only; lags by several months.

NEXT
Consumer insolvencies: running at post-2009 highs

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CBA data via the Bank of Canada · 2026-02
https://www.homiesai.com/stats/macro?x=arrears-mortgage

## SLIDE 18: Consumer insolvencies: running at post-2009 highs

03 · Insolvencies

STATS
146,135: Filings, 12 mo to Aug
2010: Last time this high
Aug 2026: Latest month
OSB: Source

OPEN
Households are restructuring debt at a 16-year high.

• 146,135 consumer filings in the 12 months to August.
• Only the 2009–10 period was higher.
• Proposals let people keep the house. That's why arrears lag.

CAVEAT
Includes bankruptcies and consumer proposals.

NEXT
Ontario's job market is the weak link

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy data · 2026-08
https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/office-superintendent-bankruptcy/en/statistics-and-research

## SLIDE 19: Ontario's job market is the weak link

03 · Jobs

STATS
6.5%: Canada, Sept
7.0%: Ontario
6.4%: Alberta
SA: LFS

OPEN
Jobs are the second shoe.

• Canada 6.5% in September, Ontario 7.0%.
• Alberta fell to 6.4%.
• If Ontario unemployment rises, arrears follow with a lag.

CAVEAT
Monthly LFS estimates carry sampling error of roughly ±0.2–0.3 points nationally.

NEXT
Oil is back above $100

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey · 2026-09
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028701

## SLIDE 20: Oil is back above $100

04 · Macro: oil

STATS
$107.89: WTI, Oct 20
$110.01: WTI, Oct 19
~$58: A year earlier
$114.58: 2026 high, Apr 7

OPEN
Start the macro section with oil, because that's where inflation is coming from.

• WTI $107.89 on Oct 20, $110.01 on Oct 19.
• About $58 a year earlier.
• 2026 high was $114.58 in April.
• Two-Canadas again: oil helps the Prairies and taxes Ontario households.

CAVEAT
EIA daily spot series lag market quotes by a few days. Weekly sampling hides intraweek highs.

NEXT
Fuel, not shelter, is driving inflation now

SOURCE
Homies Research, using U.S. EIA spot prices via FRED (DCOILWTICO, DCOILBRENTEU) · 2026-10-20
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO

## SLIDE 21: Fuel, not shelter, is driving inflation now

04 · Macro: CPI

STATS
3.1%: CPI y/y, Sept
+27.8%: Gasoline
2.2%: CPI ex gasoline
1.8%: Shelter

OPEN
Housing isn't causing this inflation. It may still pay for it.

• Headline 3.1%, up from 3.0%.
• Gasoline +27.8%, energy +19.0%.
• Ex-gasoline 2.2%. Trim 1.8%, median 1.9%.
• Shelter +1.8%. Rent and mortgage interest aren't the problem anymore.

CAVEAT
Gasoline is volatile; the Bank's core measures (trim/median) were much lower.

NEXT
China's CSI 300 is in a bear market

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada CPI (table 18-10-0004) · 2026-09
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/261019/dq261019a-eng.htm

## SLIDE 22: China's CSI 300 is in a bear market

04 · Macro: China

STATS
−20.2%: CSI 300 vs June peak
5,060: June 22 peak
~23,000: Hang Seng
−10%: Hang Seng YTD

OPEN
China matters to Canadian housing through commodities and confidence, not buyers.

• CSI 300 closed 20.2% below its June 22 peak on Oct 22.
• Hang Seng about 23,000, down roughly 10% this year.
• Property investment in China is still contracting.
• Weak China plus expensive oil is an odd mix. Watch metals and the loonie.

CAVEAT
A 20% drawdown is the convention for a bear market. Canada feels it through commodities and risk appetite, not GTA MLS directly.

NEXT
Still spending. Momentum fading.

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CSI 300 (000300.SS) daily closes via Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-27
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000300.SS/history/

## SLIDE 23: Still spending. Momentum fading.

04 · Macro: consumer

STATS
+0.7%: Sept retail (advance)
+1.2%: Aug retail
+1.1%: Aug core retail
−1.1%: July volume

OPEN
Consumers are still spending. Fuel is taxing them.

• August retail +1.2%, core +1.1%, volume +1.2%.
• September advance +0.7%, will be revised.
• July fell, August rebounded. Choppy, not collapsing.
• RBC card data: core retail +0.4% 3-month average, down from 0.6%. Gas spending +2.6%.

CAVEAT
Volume strips price effects; the September advance estimate is nominal and gets revised.

NEXT
Canada has hiked into recessions before

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada retail trade (table 20-10-0078) · 2026-08
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/261023/dq261023a-eng.htm

## SLIDE 24: Canada has hiked into recessions before

05 · History

STATS
21.03%: Bank Rate, Aug 1981
13.1%: Unemployment, Dec 1982
14.05%: Bank Rate, May 1990
12.1%: Unemployment, Nov 1992

OPEN
The Bank has done this before. It didn't end softly.

• 1981: Bank Rate 21%, recession Jun 1981–Oct 1982.
• Unemployment 7.1% to 13.1%.
• 1990: rate 14%, recession Mar 1990–Apr 1992, unemployment to 12.1% in Nov 1992.
• Unemployment peaked seven months after the recession officially ended.

CAVEAT
Recessions dated by the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council: 1980, Jun 1981–Oct 1982, Mar 1990–Apr 1992, Oct 2008–May 2009, Feb–Apr 2020. October 2026 rate value is provisional.

NEXT
Volcker: the template for hiking through a recession

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada (v122530, v2062815) and Bank of Canada Valet · 2026-10
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028701

## SLIDE 25: Volcker: the template for hiking through a recession

05 · History: Volcker

STATS
19.1%: Fed funds, Jun 1981
10.8%: U.S. unemployment, late 1982
2: Recessions, 1980–82
1 of 11: Textbook soft landings (Blinder)

OPEN
When people say soft landing, ask them to name one.

• Fed funds averaged 19.1% in June 1981.
• NBER recessions Jan–Jul 1980 and Jul 1981–Nov 1982.
• U.S. unemployment hit 10.8%.
• Blinder (JEP 2023): 11 Fed tightening episodes since 1965; the conventional view credits only 1994–95.

CAVEAT
NBER recessions: Jan–Jul 1980 and Jul 1981–Nov 1982. FRED has no U.S. unemployment value for October 2025.

NEXT
How much unemployment rose when the cycle turned

SOURCE
Homies Research, using FRED (FEDFUNDS, UNRATE) · 2026-09
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

## SLIDE 26: How much unemployment rose when the cycle turned

05 · History: the damage

STATS
+6.0 pts: 1981–82
+4.9 pts: 1990–92
+2.8 pts: 2008–09
+8.7 pts: 2020 (shutdown)

OPEN
This is what 'housing pays through jobs' looks like in numbers.

• Low to peak: +6.0 points in the early 80s, +4.9 around 1990–92.
• 2008–09 was +2.8 points.
• 2020 shown for scale only.

CAVEAT
2020 was a shutdown, not a rate-driven recession; it is shown for scale only.

NEXT
Where rate shocks have gone before

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada LFS (v2062815) and C.D. Howe recession dates · 2026-09
https://cdhowe.org/council/business-cycle-council

## SLIDE 27: Where rate shocks have gone before

05 · History: mortgage rates

STATS
21.75%: 5-yr posted, Aug 1981
6.19%: 5-yr posted, Oct 2026
Posted: Benchmark rate
Much higher: Debt vs income today

OPEN
Don't let 21% make 4% look harmless.

• Posted 5-year hit 21.75% in Aug–Sept 1981.
• 6.19% posted today.
• A 50 bp move on a $700k mortgage is real money.

CAVEAT
Posted rates are a benchmark; borrowers usually pay less. Household debt relative to income is far higher than in 1981.

NEXT
The five-year yield did the hiking first

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Bank of Canada / Statistics Canada · 2026-10
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410014501

## SLIDE 28: The five-year yield did the hiking first

06 · Rates

STATS
3.69%: 52-wk high, Sept 23
3.58%: Oct 26
2.62%: Oct 27 2025
+96 bp: In a year

OPEN
Fixed rates moved first. That's why September froze.

• Benchmark 5-year yield 3.69% on Sept 23, 3.68% on Sept 28.
• 3.58% on Oct 26.
• Up about 96 bp from a year earlier.

CAVEAT
Market quotes (intraday or other vendors) can print a few basis points higher than the Bank's daily benchmark.

NEXT
Fixed rates moved before the Bank did

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Bank of Canada benchmark bond yields (BD.CDN.5YR.DQ.YLD) · 2026-10-26
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

## SLIDE 29: Fixed rates moved before the Bank did

06 · Rates: the closer

STATS
2.25%: BoC overnight
73.6%: Market odds of Oct 28 hike
3.58%: 5-yr GoC, Oct 26
Oct 28: Decision day

OPEN
This is the set-up for tomorrow. Fixed already moved. Variable is next.

• Overnight rate 2.25%, held on Sept 2.
• rateprobability.com: 73.6% for 25 bp on Oct 28, about 109 bp priced over 12 months (Oct 27, 8 a.m.).
• CREA: hike widely expected before year-end.
• Tell clients to get a rate hold today.

CAVEAT
Posted rates sit well above discounted rates borrowers actually get; October is month-to-date.

NEXT
What gets built: rental up, condos gone

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Bank of Canada data · 2026-10
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/

## SLIDE 30: What gets built: rental up, condos gone

07 · What gets built

STATS
120,388: Rental starts, 12 mo
38,307: Condo starts, 12 mo
58%: Rental share, 2026 YTD
8,289: Toronto CMA condo starts (4Q)

OPEN
Towers are out. Rental and small buildings are in.

• 12-month starts: rental 120,388, condo 38,307.
• Rental share 58% of starts so far in 2026, from 20% in 2015.
• Toronto CMA condo starts 8,289 (4Q to Q2 2026) vs 31,445 three years earlier (CMHC).
• Desjardins: City of Toronto condo starts 525 units Jan–Sep.

CAVEAT
Intended market at start; some condo projects convert to rental later.

NEXT
Follow the cheques: housing is an enabling bucket

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CMHC Starts and Completions Survey via Statistics Canada · 2026-09
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410014801

## SLIDE 31: Follow the cheques: housing is an enabling bucket

07 · CapEx tilt

STATS
$20B: Clean energy
$15B: Trade & transport
$10B: Enabling housing
C$1.558T: Big Six residential mortgages

OPEN
Structural de-housing: the mortgage book stays huge, the new money goes elsewhere.

• CIB targets: $20B clean energy, $15B trade, $10B housing, $5B digital/AI.
• Big Six residential mortgages C$1.558T at Jul 31, 79.1% uninsured (Axis).
• PwC/ULI 2027: power and compute, defence and resilience, demographics and care.
• Oxford for PwC: US$54B data centres, US$89B defence infrastructure to 2050.

CAVEAT
Targets, not money spent. A separate $3B Indigenous equity target is not shown.

NEXT
Precon towns can beat resale. Precon condos mostly can't.

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Canada Infrastructure Bank growth plan · 2026
https://cib-bic.ca/en/growth-plan/

## SLIDE 32: Precon towns can beat resale. Precon condos mostly can't.

07 · Precon vs resale

STATS
1,003: GTA floor plans matched
74.5%: Towns below resale ask
2.0%: Condo apts below resale ask
$763/sf: Bulk buyers, finished condos

OPEN
Product matters more than market right now.

• Valery matched 1,003 plans in 113 projects (I run Valery, so disclose that).
• 74.5% of freehold town plans screened below nearby resale asking.
• 2% of condo apartment plans did.
• Urbanation Q3: bulk buyers ~$763/sf vs resale ~$724/sf.

CAVEAT
Asking prices, not solds. Daniel Foch leads Valery Research. Disclose that when you share this chart.

NEXT
What to tell clients, then the Homies CTA.

SOURCE
Valery Research, GTA preconstruction vs resale (Daniel Foch) · 2026-10-18
https://valery.ca/research/gta-preconstruction-vs-resale/

## SLIDE 33: Make the market call your own

OPEN
Take this report and rebuild it for your market with the prompt at the top of the page.

SELLERS
• Price off this fall's solds. Last spring's list prices and 2022 comps don't count anymore.
• GTA sellers face fewer competing listings than last year, so listing now can beat waiting for spring. In Quebec, Manitoba and Atlantic Canada inventory is building; don't assume last year's gains carry forward.

BUYERS
• Get a rate hold now. Fixed rates already moved, and a hike would move variable.
• Lower prices haven't fixed the payment. Run the numbers at today's rate plus a stress buffer.
• Check precon towns against resale. For condos, resale or finished units usually win.

AGENTS
• Take leasing seriously. Purpose-built rental is most of what's getting built.
• Learn small buildings and the financing that goes with them. The tower pipeline is drying up.
• Watch Ontario unemployment and delinquencies. That's the next shoe for listings.

REM reader rate CAD $79.99/month, requested through Daniel.