# September 2026 REM Market Call — speaker notes

Prepared September 28, 2026. https://www.homiesai.com/research/canada-housing-market-call-september-2026

## SLIDE 1 — A fragile recovery. A divided housing market.

OPEN
Canada’s housing recovery is uneven and vulnerable: less resale competition in parts of Ontario and British Columbia is meeting softer employment, higher fixed-rate funding costs and very different local supply pipelines.

FOCUS
Employment fell by 42,000 in August. An unchanged 6.4% unemployment rate does not mean the labour market was unchanged: participation also fell.

Headline inflation held at 3.0%, while CPI-trim and CPI-median were near 2%. Energy and the currency remain important risks to household spending and financing costs.

The Bank of Canada held at 2.25%, but the five-year federal bond yield reached 3.65% on September 25. A policy-rate hold does not guarantee cheaper fixed mortgages.

CREA reported a 0.7% monthly sales decline. The national average price edged up year over year while the MLS® HPI remained lower; the two measures answer different questions.

The September population revision matters. Canada’s population grew 0.5% over the year to July 1. Temporary-resident numbers fell, but that is not the same as an outright national population decline.

TRANSITION
Start with the income that supports housing demand.

## SLIDE 2 — August interrupts the spring jobs rebound

OPEN
Employment fell 41,700 in August to 21,173,100; Statistics Canada rounds the decline to 42,000.

FOCUS
Canada employment level · monthly

Reference period: 2026-08. Seasonally adjusted.

CAVEAT
Survey reference week August 9–15; monthly estimates have sampling variability; Canada excludes territories.

TRANSITION
The unchanged unemployment rate masks lower participation

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028701

## SLIDE 3 — The unchanged unemployment rate masks lower participation

OPEN
Employment and participation rates each fell 0.1 percentage point in August.

FOCUS
Two different population ratios · same percent unit

Reference period: 2026-08. Seasonally adjusted.

CAVEAT
Survey reference week August 9–15; monthly estimates have sampling variability; Canada excludes territories.

TRANSITION
Local job markets do not share one unemployment rate

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028701

## SLIDE 4 — Local job markets do not share one unemployment rate

OPEN
August unemployment ranged from 5.0% in Manitoba to 8.6% in Newfoundland and Labrador.

FOCUS
August 2026 · ten provinces

Reference period: 2026-08. Seasonally adjusted.

CAVEAT
Survey reference week August 9–15; monthly estimates have sampling variability; Canada excludes territories.

TRANSITION
Public payrolls lose momentum after years of growth

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028701

## SLIDE 5 — Public payrolls lose momentum after years of growth

OPEN
Public-sector employment fell 20,000 in August; private payrolls and self-employment were statistically little changed.

FOCUS
Common baseline compares growth, not sector sizes

Reference period: 2026-08. Seasonally adjusted; indexed to January 2019.

CAVEAT
Indices are rebased from people counts. Monthly movements may not be statistically significant; levels differ greatly between groups.

TRANSITION
AI adoption is broadening, but adoption is not job loss

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0288-01
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410028801

## SLIDE 6 — AI adoption is broadening, but adoption is not job loss

OPEN
The share of businesses reporting AI use rose from 6.1% in Q2 2024 to 19.2% in Q2 2026.

FOCUS
AI used to produce goods or deliver services in the preceding 12 months

Reference period: 2026-Q2 survey; previous 12 months. Weighted business survey; not seasonally adjusted.

CAVEAT
Survey conducted April 1–May 6, 2026. Reported adoption is not measured job displacement or a causal productivity effect.

TRANSITION
Output rose while business hours slipped

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3310116701

## SLIDE 7 — Output rose while business hours slipped

OPEN
Business-sector productivity rose 1.0% in Q2 2026 while hours worked declined 0.1%.

FOCUS
Quarterly business-sector indices

Reference period: 2026-Q2. Seasonally adjusted.

CAVEAT
The chart does not attribute the productivity gain to AI; industries, cyclical recovery and hours all matter.

TRANSITION
Housing activity participates in an uneven expansion

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610020601

## SLIDE 8 — Housing activity participates in an uneven expansion

OPEN
June real GDP rose 0.3%, with services up 0.4% and goods down 0.1%.

FOCUS
Monthly output, indexed to a common pre-pandemic baseline

Reference period: 2026-06. Seasonally adjusted, chained 2017 dollars; indexed.

CAVEAT
July advance estimate is flat and preliminary. Official July GDP is scheduled for September 29, after cut-off.

TRANSITION
June grew; the July advance estimate was flat

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610043401

## SLIDE 9 — June grew; the July advance estimate was flat

OPEN
June GDP increased for the third consecutive month; the official July release falls after the production cut-off.

FOCUS
The plotted data end in June; July advance estimate is not plotted

Reference period: 2026-06. Seasonally adjusted; calculated from published levels.

CAVEAT
July advance estimate is flat and preliminary. Official July GDP is scheduled for September 29, after cut-off.

TRANSITION
Energy lifts headline inflation above the underlying trend

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610043401

## SLIDE 10 — Energy lifts headline inflation above the underlying trend

OPEN
August headline CPI rose 3.0% year over year while gasoline rose 22.8%.

FOCUS
Different components require different explanations

Reference period: 2026-08. Not seasonally adjusted; 12-month index change.

CAVEAT
Year-over-year changes calculated from unadjusted index levels; rent CPI covers occupied rents and differs from asking rents.

TRANSITION
Rent and mortgage interest are moving differently

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401

## SLIDE 11 — Rent and mortgage interest are moving differently

OPEN
Rent CPI rose 2.8% year over year in August; mortgage interest cost CPI fell about 0.2%.

FOCUS
Occupied-housing price measures · not resale appreciation

Reference period: 2026-08. Not seasonally adjusted; 12-month index change.

CAVEAT
Year-over-year changes calculated from unadjusted index levels; rent CPI covers occupied rents and differs from asking rents.

TRANSITION
The inflation shock has a regional footprint

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401

## SLIDE 12 — The inflation shock has a regional footprint

OPEN
Atlantic provinces recorded the highest year-over-year inflation rates in August.

FOCUS
August 2026 · all-items CPI by province

Reference period: 2026-08. Not seasonally adjusted; 12-month index change.

CAVEAT
Year-over-year changes calculated from unadjusted index levels; rent CPI covers occupied rents and differs from asking rents.

TRANSITION
Core measures remain around the 2% target

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401

## SLIDE 13 — Core measures remain around the 2% target

OPEN
August CPI-median was 2.0% and CPI-trim was 1.9%.

FOCUS
Six-month window from the September release table

Reference period: 2026-08. Published core inflation rates.

CAVEAT
Core measures can be revised; CPI-median and CPI-trim adjust indirect taxes and seasonality.

TRANSITION
Fixed-rate financing faces a higher bond floor

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada / Bank of Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810025601

## SLIDE 14 — Fixed-rate financing faces a higher bond floor

OPEN
The five-year Canada yield reached 3.65% on September 25, up 51 basis points from July 15.

FOCUS
Government of Canada benchmark yields · through September 25

Reference period: through 2026-09-25. Daily business-day observations.

CAVEAT
Business-day market observations, not mortgage offers. Latest available in retrieved file is September 25.

TRANSITION
A steady policy rate does not freeze mortgage pricing

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Bank of Canada Valet data
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest-rates/canadian-bonds/

## SLIDE 15 — A steady policy rate does not freeze mortgage pricing

OPEN
The Bank of Canada held its overnight target at 2.25% on September 2.

FOCUS
Monthly history through August · September hold disclosed in claim

Reference period: monthly history through 2026-08; decision 2026-09-02. Last available observation in each completed month.

CAVEAT
Canonical ETL uses month-end/last observation, not monthly average. September snapshot is incomplete; primary daily bonds are charted separately. Prime is a reference, not every borrower’s rate.

TRANSITION
The currency is another inflation transmission channel

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Bank of Canada data
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/

## SLIDE 16 — The currency is another inflation transmission channel

OPEN
One Canadian dollar bought US$0.7058 in the September 28 daily average.

FOCUS
A lower value means a weaker Canadian dollar

Reference period: through 2026-09-28. Daily average exchange rate.

CAVEAT
US dollars per Canadian dollar; daily average, not a transaction rate.

TRANSITION
Aggregate debt service eased, but payments still rose

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Bank of Canada Valet data
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/exchange/daily-exchange-rates/

## SLIDE 17 — Aggregate debt service eased, but payments still rose

OPEN
The household debt-service ratio fell to 14.52% in Q2 as income grew faster than required payments.

FOCUS
Principal and interest obligations relative to income

Reference period: 2026-Q2. Seasonally adjusted quarterly ratios.

CAVEAT
Aggregate ratios hide distributional stress; Q1 revised; debt service denominator is disposable income before interest payments.

TRANSITION
One softer month does not erase the annual stress trend

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1110006501

## SLIDE 18 — One softer month does not erase the annual stress trend

OPEN
Consumer insolvencies totalled 145,681 over the year to July, 5.4% above the previous 12 months.

FOCUS
Smoothing the monthly volatility · proposals are not bankruptcies

Reference period: 12 months ending 2026-07. Rolling 12-month sum of unadjusted monthly filings.

CAVEAT
BIA consumer filings comprise bankruptcies and proposals; not mortgage arrears or foreclosures. Monthly counts are unadjusted and volatile.

TRANSITION
Population growth has slowed, not disappeared

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy / ISED data
https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/office-superintendent-bankruptcy/en/statistics-and-research/insolvency-statistics-canada-july-2026

## SLIDE 19 — Population growth has slowed, not disappeared

OPEN
Revised July estimates show population up 0.5% over the year, with large provincial differences.

FOCUS
September 23 revised demographic vintage

Reference period: 2026-07-01. Quarterly population stocks; 12-month change.

CAVEAT
Preliminary quarterly estimates; September vintage revises earlier estimates from Q3 2021 onward.

TRANSITION
Fewer temporary residents can coexist with population growth

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901

## SLIDE 20 — Fewer temporary residents can coexist with population growth

OPEN
Q2 immigration of 99,148 exceeded the decline of 18,875 non-permanent residents.

FOCUS
Quarter-start dates · positive net emigration is a deduction

Reference period: 2026-Q2. Not seasonally adjusted; quarterly flows.

CAVEAT
Not a stacked total: subtract net emigration from the other components. Preliminary flows include residual statistical adjustment; never add the NPR stock to quarterly flows.

TRANSITION
Interprovincial flows redistribute demand

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada tables 17-10-0040 and 17-10-0059
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710004001

## SLIDE 21 — Interprovincial flows redistribute demand

OPEN
Alberta gained 5,893 interprovincial migrants in Q2 while Ontario lost 7,063.

FOCUS
Q2 2026 · ten provinces; territories omitted

Reference period: 2026-Q2. Quarterly net arrivals minus departures; unadjusted.

CAVEAT
Net migration equals arrivals minus departures; preliminary estimates are revised with administrative data.

TRANSITION
Temporary-resident stocks are falling unevenly

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710002001

## SLIDE 22 — Temporary-resident stocks are falling unevenly

OPEN
Canada had 2,779,774 non-permanent residents on July 1, 5.3% fewer than a year earlier.

FOCUS
Official 2021-onward series; no reconstructed earlier observations

Reference period: 2026-07-01. Quarterly stocks; year-over-year calculation.

CAVEAT
Official stock series starts in 2021. Earlier reconstructed history from canonical feed is excluded here.

TRANSITION
National home sales remain below the pandemic surge

SOURCE
Homies Research, using Statistics Canada data
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710012101

## SLIDE 23 — National home sales remain below the pandemic surge

OPEN
The Canada aggregate recorded 37,749 seasonally adjusted sales in August 2026.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Seasonally adjusted monthly units

Reference period: 2026-08. Seasonally adjusted monthly units.

CAVEAT
Canada is computed from reporting jurisdictions in the dashboard; use the CREA official release for headline percentage changes. No annualization.

TRANSITION
New listings loosened the national balance in August

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® aggregate statistics
https://creastats.crea.ca/

## SLIDE 24 — New listings loosened the national balance in August

OPEN
The national sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to about 49.1%, versus about 51.1% in July.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Seasonally adjusted sales / new listings × 100

Reference period: 2026-08. Seasonally adjusted sales / new listings × 100.

CAVEAT
CREA describes 45–65% as broadly balanced nationally; it is not a universal local-market threshold. No causal price prediction is implied.

TRANSITION
Provincial average-price growth is diverging

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® aggregate statistics
https://creastats.crea.ca/

## SLIDE 25 — Provincial average-price growth is diverging

OPEN
Alberta and Quebec had annual average-price gains while Ontario declined.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change.

CAVEAT
Average prices reflect the mix of homes sold; they are not an MLS® HPI benchmark or a same-home price index. Board geographies can extend beyond municipal boundaries. Small markets are volatile.

TRANSITION
Sales slowed across all ten provinces

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® aggregate statistics
https://creastats.crea.ca/

## SLIDE 26 — Sales slowed across all ten provinces

OPEN
Every province recorded fewer actual residential sales than in August 2025.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change.

CAVEAT
Monthly actual sales compared with the same month one year earlier. Do not infer month-to-month momentum from these seasonal counts.

TRANSITION
Inventory is growing in some provinces and shrinking in others

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® aggregate statistics
https://creastats.crea.ca/

## SLIDE 27 — Inventory is growing in some provinces and shrinking in others

OPEN
August inventory rose 18.8% in Quebec but fell 3.9% in Ontario.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change.

CAVEAT
Active listings are the month-end stock. Provincial aggregates can conceal local or property-type shortages.

TRANSITION
Compare price growth across 92 board markets

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® aggregate statistics
https://creastats.crea.ca/

## SLIDE 28 — Compare price growth across 92 board markets

OPEN
Local average-price outcomes differ substantially beneath the national average.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change.

CAVEAT
Average prices reflect the mix of homes sold; they are not an MLS® HPI benchmark or a same-home price index. Board geographies can extend beyond municipal boundaries. Small markets are volatile.

TRANSITION
Local sales tell a more varied story

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® aggregate statistics
https://creastats.crea.ca/

## SLIDE 29 — Local sales tell a more varied story

OPEN
Victoria sales rose year-over-year while several large markets slowed.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change.

CAVEAT
Board-market residential actual sales, not municipal totals. Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec are available at provincial level; no invented city proxies are included.

TRANSITION
The direction of inventory matters as much as its level

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® aggregate statistics
https://creastats.crea.ca/

## SLIDE 30 — The direction of inventory matters as much as its level

OPEN
Toronto board inventory fell while Edmonton, Winnipeg and Halifax-Dartmouth gained.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change.

CAVEAT
Month-end active residential listings. Changes can reflect both listing inflows and selling activity; inventory declines alone do not prove demand is recovering.

TRANSITION
Months of inventory vary sharply by market

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® aggregate statistics
https://creastats.crea.ca/

## SLIDE 31 — Months of inventory vary sharply by market

OPEN
August actual inventory equalled about 7.9 months of sales in Greater Vancouver and 2.4 in Saskatoon.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual monthly active listings / monthly sales

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual monthly active listings / monthly sales.

CAVEAT
Not seasonally adjusted. A single-month ratio is seasonal and can spike in small markets. This differs from CREA national seasonally adjusted MOI and TRREB published trend MOI.

TRANSITION
Compare the flow of sales against new listings

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® aggregate statistics
https://creastats.crea.ca/

## SLIDE 32 — Compare the flow of sales against new listings

OPEN
Local sales-to-new-listings ratios show why a national label cannot describe every market.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual monthly sales / new listings × 100

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual monthly sales / new listings × 100.

CAVEAT
Not seasonally adjusted. Ratios above 100% can occur when sales draw from prior-month inventory. Do not apply national thresholds mechanically to every board.

TRANSITION
Calgary apartments face a different balance from detached homes

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREA MLS® aggregate statistics
https://creastats.crea.ca/

## SLIDE 33 — Calgary apartments face a different balance from detached homes

OPEN
Calgary city apartment benchmark prices fell about 8% year-over-year, while detached prices were about 1% lower.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual MLS® HPI benchmark by home type

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual MLS® HPI benchmark by home type.

CAVEAT
City of Calgary, not the larger Calgary board-region series. Approximate YoY moves in the release: detached −1%, semi +1%, row −5%, apartment −8%. Release publication day not independently stated.

TRANSITION
Average, median and benchmark prices answer different questions

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CREB® / CREA
https://stats.crea.ca/board/calg/

## SLIDE 34 — Average, median and benchmark prices answer different questions

OPEN
The GTA August average was $993,410; median $850,000; composite HPI benchmark $925,900.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Published monthly price levels, not seasonally adjusted

Reference period: 2026-08. Published monthly price levels, not seasonally adjusted.

CAVEAT
These measures are not interchangeable. Historical observations retain their original monthly PDF vintage; current release year-over-year comparisons may incorporate revisions.

TRANSITION
GTA new listings fell faster than sales year-over-year

SOURCE
Homies Research, using TRREB Market Watch
https://trreb.ca/a-noticeable-dip-in-gta-home-sales-and-listings-pointing-to-renewed-price-growth/

## SLIDE 35 — GTA new listings fell faster than sales year-over-year

OPEN
August sales were 5,057 and new listings 12,075; the official release reports declines of 2.1% and 14.1%.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual monthly counts

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual monthly counts.

CAVEAT
Seasonal levels. The monthly arithmetic sales/new-listings ratio is 41.9%, distinct from the published trend SNLR of 37.5%.

TRANSITION
The GTA is several property markets at once

SOURCE
Homies Research, using TRREB Market Watch
https://trreb.ca/a-noticeable-dip-in-gta-home-sales-and-listings-pointing-to-renewed-price-growth/

## SLIDE 36 — The GTA is several property markets at once

OPEN
Detached and condominium apartment average prices remain far apart.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual average sale price by property type

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual average sale price by property type.

CAVEAT
All TRREB areas. Mix effects remain even within each type; this is not benchmark price growth.

TRANSITION
Sales conditions also differ by property type

SOURCE
Homies Research, using TRREB Market Watch
https://trreb.ca/a-noticeable-dip-in-gta-home-sales-and-listings-pointing-to-renewed-price-growth/

## SLIDE 37 — Sales conditions also differ by property type

OPEN
Property-type sales provide a useful check on changes in the headline average price.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change.

CAVEAT
Year-over-year changes computed from each archived monthly release. Headline comparisons printed in the latest release may differ due to revisions.

TRANSITION
A listing clock can understate the time a property takes to sell

SOURCE
Homies Research, using TRREB Market Watch
https://trreb.ca/a-noticeable-dip-in-gta-home-sales-and-listings-pointing-to-renewed-price-growth/

## SLIDE 38 — A listing clock can understate the time a property takes to sell

OPEN
GTA average property days on market was 51 in August, compared with 35 listing days.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual monthly average days

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual monthly average days.

CAVEAT
PDOM and LDOM use different listing-history treatment. Historical coverage and archived-release revisions vary.

TRANSITION
GTA municipalities have different price trajectories

SOURCE
Homies Research, using TRREB Market Watch
https://trreb.ca/a-noticeable-dip-in-gta-home-sales-and-listings-pointing-to-renewed-price-growth/

## SLIDE 39 — GTA municipalities have different price trajectories

OPEN
Municipal price changes should be checked before applying the GTA headline to a client.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual, not seasonally adjusted; year-over-year change.

CAVEAT
Average prices reflect the mix of homes sold; they are not an MLS® HPI benchmark or a same-home price index. Board geographies can extend beyond municipal boundaries. Small markets are volatile. Year-over-year changes use the archived monthly release vintage.

TRANSITION
Starts show the geography of the next supply cycle

SOURCE
Homies Research, using TRREB Market Watch
https://trreb.ca/a-noticeable-dip-in-gta-home-sales-and-listings-pointing-to-renewed-price-growth/

## SLIDE 40 — Starts show the geography of the next supply cycle

OPEN
Alberta recorded a higher August SAAR of starts than Ontario.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)

Reference period: 2026-08. Seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

CAVEAT
A monthly annualized pace is not the number of homes started during the month or a forecast. Volatile multi-unit projects affect monthly readings.

TRANSITION
City construction starts reveal what comes next

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CMHC / Statistics Canada Table 34-10-0158-01
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410015801

## SLIDE 41 — City construction starts reveal what comes next

OPEN
Trailing-year housing starts help compare local construction momentum.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Trailing 12-month sum of actual monthly units

Reference period: 2026-08. Trailing 12-month sum of actual monthly units.

CAVEAT
CMA/CA boundaries differ from real-estate board boundaries. This includes current census centres only; do not compare these counts directly with all-Canada SAAR. Starts, completions and construction stock measure different stages. Selected CMAs use Table 34-10-0154-01; smaller-centre series use Table 34-10-0155-01 (linked in the source register).

TRANSITION
Completions show the supply reaching buyers and renters

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CMHC / Statistics Canada Tables 34-10-0154-01 and 34-10-0155-01
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410015401

## SLIDE 42 — Completions show the supply reaching buyers and renters

OPEN
Completions reflect projects started earlier and can rise even as new starts weaken.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Trailing 12-month sum of actual monthly units

Reference period: 2026-08. Trailing 12-month sum of actual monthly units.

CAVEAT
CMA/CA boundaries differ from real-estate board boundaries. This includes current census centres only; do not compare these counts directly with all-Canada SAAR. Starts, completions and construction stock measure different stages. Selected CMAs use Table 34-10-0154-01; smaller-centre series use Table 34-10-0155-01 (linked in the source register).

TRANSITION
Homes under construction show the local pipeline

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CMHC / Statistics Canada Tables 34-10-0154-01 and 34-10-0155-01
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410015401

## SLIDE 43 — Homes under construction show the local pipeline

OPEN
Toronto and Vancouver still have large construction pipelines, despite weak new condominium starts.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Actual month-end stock

Reference period: 2026-08. Actual month-end stock.

CAVEAT
CMA/CA boundaries differ from real-estate board boundaries. This includes current census centres only; do not compare these counts directly with all-Canada SAAR. Starts, completions and construction stock measure different stages. Selected CMAs use Table 34-10-0154-01; smaller-centre series use Table 34-10-0155-01 (linked in the source register).

TRANSITION
Rental construction is carrying much of the new pipeline

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CMHC / Statistics Canada Tables 34-10-0154-01 and 34-10-0155-01
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410015401

## SLIDE 44 — Rental construction is carrying much of the new pipeline

OPEN
Purpose-built rental, condominium and homeowner starts serve different housing needs.

FOCUS
2026-08 · Trailing 12-month sum, actual starts; centres 50,000+

Reference period: 2026-08. Trailing 12-month sum, actual starts; centres 50,000+.

CAVEAT
Despite the feed key ending canada, the underlying table covers centres of 50,000 or more. It is not all-area national construction. Rental units are not a substitute for every ownership segment.

TRANSITION
Vacancy has eased, with important local differences

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CMHC / Statistics Canada Table 34-10-0152-01
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410015201

## SLIDE 45 — Vacancy has eased, with important local differences

OPEN
Rental vacancy should be read by city and housing segment.

FOCUS
2025 annual survey · Annual survey; apartment structures with six or more units

Reference period: 2025 annual survey. Annual survey; apartment structures with six or more units.

CAVEAT
Annual survey observations are plotted at January as a year label, not a January measurement. These 6+ unit results differ from the broader apartment universe in the CMHC mid-year report. They are not September 2026 vacancy rates.

TRANSITION
Existing rental costs remain high across major cities

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CMHC / Statistics Canada Table 34-10-0127-01
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410012701

## SLIDE 46 — Existing rental costs remain high across major cities

OPEN
The annual two-bedroom rent series measures a different market from current asking rents.

FOCUS
2025 annual survey · Annual survey; two-bedroom row/apartment structures with three or more units

Reference period: 2025 annual survey. Annual survey; two-bedroom row/apartment structures with three or more units.

CAVEAT
Year label, not January rent. Average paid rents include occupied units and should not be described as current advertised asking rents. Structural scope differs from the 6+ apartment vacancy series.

TRANSITION
Asking rents and paid rents can move in opposite directions

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CMHC / Statistics Canada Table 34-10-0133-01
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3410013301

## SLIDE 47 — Asking rents and paid rents can move in opposite directions

OPEN
By Q4 2025, advertised two-bedroom rents were below Q1 2024 levels in several major cities.

FOCUS
2025 Q4; published June 2026 · Quarterly asking-rent index, Q1 2024=100

Reference period: 2025 Q4; published June 2026. Quarterly asking-rent index, Q1 2024=100.

CAVEAT
Lagged quarterly advertised rents, not September 2026 rents or rents paid by sitting tenants. Quarter-end month is used for the date axis. Incentives may not be fully captured.

TRANSITION
Bring this evidence into your local market conversation.

SOURCE
Homies Research, using CMHC calculations from Statistics Canada asking rents
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/observer/2026/2026-mid-year-rental-market-update

## SLIDE 48 — Make the market call your own

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