{
  "cutoff": "2026-09-30",
  "vintage": "2026-09-23",
  "charts": [
    {
      "id": "quarters",
      "title": "Two declines became growth",
      "subtitle": "Change in population · people · calendar quarters",
      "stat": "−234,597 → +109,082",
      "takeaway": "The three-quarter decline was revised away. Q4 still slipped slightly.",
      "unit": "people",
      "kind": "bars",
      "labels": [
        "Q3 2025",
        "Q4 2025",
        "Q1 2026"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "Previously published",
          "values": [
            -76068,
            -103504,
            -55025
          ],
          "color": "#b64b39"
        },
        {
          "name": "September 2026 vintage",
          "values": [
            114941,
            -7225,
            1366
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        }
      ],
      "source": "StatCan original quarterly releases & Table 17-10-0009-01",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901",
      "caveat": "Old bars reproduce original releases; new bars use one consistent September vintage. Q2 2026 first print: +80,343."
    },
    {
      "id": "stock",
      "title": "Same date. Different estimate.",
      "subtitle": "Resident population · millions · two publication vintages",
      "stat": "+301,008 on April 1",
      "takeaway": "A historical measurement correction—not a new arrival wave.",
      "unit": "million",
      "kind": "line",
      "labels": [
        "Jul 2025",
        "Oct 2025",
        "Jan 2026",
        "Apr 2026",
        "Jul 2026"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "Previously published",
          "values": [
            41.651653,
            41.575585,
            41.472081,
            41.417056,
            null
          ],
          "color": "#b64b39"
        },
        {
          "name": "September 2026 vintage",
          "values": [
            41.608982,
            41.723923,
            41.716698,
            41.718064,
            41.798407
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        }
      ],
      "source": "StatCan releases & Table 17-10-0009-01",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901",
      "caveat": "Vertical scale starts above zero to show the revision. July 2025 itself was revised down 42,671. Old series ends April 2026."
    },
    {
      "id": "npr",
      "title": "The temporary-resident decline is real",
      "subtitle": "Non-permanent resident stock · millions · September 2026 vintage",
      "stat": "−154,614 in one year",
      "takeaway": "A softer decline still leaves a smaller temporary-resident population.",
      "unit": "million",
      "kind": "line",
      "labels": [
        "Jul 2024",
        "Oct 2024",
        "Jan 2025",
        "Apr 2025",
        "Jul 2025",
        "Oct 2025",
        "Jan 2026",
        "Apr 2026",
        "Jul 2026"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "Non-permanent residents",
          "values": [
            2.900083,
            2.984285,
            2.952596,
            2.925722,
            2.934388,
            2.942949,
            2.863151,
            2.798649,
            2.779774
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        }
      ],
      "source": "StatCan Table 17-10-0121-01",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710012101",
      "caveat": "Stock changes include arrivals, departures, status transitions and demographic adjustments. They are not departure counts."
    },
    {
      "id": "growth",
      "title": "Growing, at a much slower pace",
      "subtitle": "Annual population growth · July to July · percent",
      "stat": "0.5% annual growth",
      "takeaway": "The correction removes the contraction story, not the slowdown.",
      "unit": "%",
      "kind": "bars",
      "labels": [
        "2021–22",
        "2022–23",
        "2023–24",
        "2024–25",
        "2025–26"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "September 2026 vintage",
          "values": [
            1.8,
            2.7,
            2.8,
            1.1,
            0.5
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        }
      ],
      "source": "StatCan September 23, 2026 annual estimates",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260923/dq260923a-eng.htm",
      "caveat": "Published rates rounded to one decimal. 2025–26: +189,425 people; lowest percentage growth since 1915–16."
    },
    {
      "id": "age",
      "title": "The renter-age cohort got smaller",
      "subtitle": "Annual population change · July 2025 to July 2026 · people",
      "stat": "−154,973 people in their 20s",
      "takeaway": "Age composition matters—but this does not measure youth emigration.",
      "unit": "people",
      "kind": "bars",
      "labels": [
        "Age 20–24",
        "Age 25–29"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "Population change",
          "values": [
            -63838,
            -91135
          ],
          "color": "#b64b39"
        }
      ],
      "source": "StatCan September 23, 2026 age estimates",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260923/dq260923a-eng.htm",
      "caveat": "Changes reflect aging into/out of cohorts, deaths and migration. A declining age group does not prove a brain drain."
    },
    {
      "id": "rents",
      "title": "Rental softness is not everywhere",
      "subtitle": "Two-bedroom asking rent · Q2 2026 · annual change, percent",
      "stat": "Canada CMAs: −3.6%",
      "takeaway": "The national decline hides cities where advertised rents still rose.",
      "unit": "%",
      "kind": "bars",
      "labels": [
        "Abbotsford–Mission",
        "Calgary",
        "Montréal",
        "Vancouver",
        "Saskatoon",
        "Halifax",
        "Sherbrooke",
        "Thunder Bay"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "Asking rent change",
          "values": [
            -6.4,
            -6.4,
            -5.2,
            -4.1,
            5.2,
            5.3,
            5.7,
            6.5
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        }
      ],
      "source": "StatCan Quarterly Rent Statistics · September 9, 2026",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260909/dq260909c-eng.htm",
      "caveat": "Experimental listing-based estimates; primary and secondary rentals. Composition is not held constant. All-CMA average: $2,130/month."
    },
    {
      "id": "vacancy",
      "title": "More vacancy, least room at the bottom",
      "subtitle": "Purpose-built apartment vacancy · Canada · percent by rent bracket",
      "stat": "1.4% cheap · 5.3% expensive",
      "takeaway": "More empty expensive units does not mean enough affordable rentals.",
      "unit": "%",
      "kind": "bars",
      "labels": [
        "Lowest-rent 25%",
        "Second quartile",
        "Third quartile",
        "Highest-rent 25%"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "October 2024",
          "values": [
            0.7,
            1.2,
            2,
            4.5
          ],
          "color": "#927142"
        },
        {
          "name": "October 2025",
          "values": [
            1.4,
            2.3,
            3.1,
            5.3
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        }
      ],
      "source": "CMHC 2025 Rental Market Report · Figure 2",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-reports-major-centres?ap=a1-p1",
      "caveat": "Quartiles are rent brackets, not calendar quarters. National purpose-built vacancy: 2.2% in 2024 → 3.1% in 2025. Not all homes."
    },
    {
      "id": "occupancy",
      "title": "People use housing in different ways",
      "subtitle": "Units primarily maintained per 1,000 people · 2021 Census",
      "stat": "NPRs: 316 rented units / 1,000",
      "takeaway": "Population-to-household shortcuts miss tenure and shared households.",
      "unit": "units / 1,000",
      "kind": "bars",
      "labels": [
        "Canadian-born",
        "Recent immigrants",
        "Non-permanent residents",
        "Work permit holders",
        "Study permit holders"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "Rented units",
          "values": [
            126,
            203,
            316,
            371,
            260
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        },
        {
          "name": "Owned units",
          "values": [
            271,
            115,
            41,
            51,
            32
          ],
          "color": "#b64b39"
        }
      ],
      "source": "StatCan housing use study · May 28, 2025 · Table 1",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2025005/article/00003-eng.htm",
      "caveat": "Historical observed occupancy, not unconstrained need or a marginal forecast coefficient. Work/study categories are subsets of NPRs; mixed households matter."
    },
    {
      "id": "construction",
      "title": "The supply mix is changing",
      "subtitle": "Actual annual starts · thousands · seven major markets",
      "stat": "Rental starts doubled since 2019",
      "takeaway": "A rental boom can coexist with a weakening condo pipeline.",
      "unit": "thousand units",
      "kind": "bars",
      "labels": [
        "2019",
        "2024",
        "2025"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "Rental apartments",
          "values": [
            28.877,
            47.929,
            69.475
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        },
        {
          "name": "Condominiums",
          "values": [
            47.719,
            45.737,
            34.259
          ],
          "color": "#b64b39"
        },
        {
          "name": "Ground-oriented",
          "values": [
            39.989,
            45.385,
            43.967
          ],
          "color": "#927142"
        }
      ],
      "source": "CMHC Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report · Figure 3",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report/",
      "caveat": "Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal and Halifax—not Canada totals. Starts are not completions."
    },
    {
      "id": "gap",
      "title": "The affordability gap survives",
      "subtitle": "Annual starts · thousands · observed pace vs model scenarios",
      "stat": "417,000–469,000 needed",
      "takeaway": "Slower growth alone does not restore 2019 affordability.",
      "unit": "thousand units",
      "kind": "bars",
      "labels": [
        "Aug 2026 trend",
        "Projected BAU",
        "Required: low",
        "Required: high"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "Annualized pace / annual scenario",
          "values": [
            244.149,
            231,
            417,
            469
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        }
      ],
      "source": "CMHC Fall 2026 report & August 2026 starts release",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report/",
      "caveat": "August is six-month trend SAAR, not an actual yearly total. BAU/required are 2036 affordability scenarios. Model incorporation of Sep population revision unconfirmed."
    },
    {
      "id": "regionalGap",
      "title": "The gap is local, not uniform",
      "subtitle": "Additional annual starts required · thousands · CMHC 2036 scenario",
      "stat": "Montréal: 42,000–56,000 extra",
      "takeaway": "A national population story is too blunt for a local deal.",
      "unit": "thousand units",
      "kind": "bars",
      "labels": [
        "Toronto",
        "Ottawa",
        "Montréal",
        "Vancouver",
        "Calgary",
        "Edmonton"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "Low scenario gap",
          "values": [
            20,
            22,
            42,
            5,
            4,
            0
          ],
          "color": "#927142"
        },
        {
          "name": "High scenario gap",
          "values": [
            26,
            27,
            56,
            7,
            5,
            0
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        }
      ],
      "source": "CMHC Fall 2026 Housing Supply Report · Table 1",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report/",
      "caveat": "CMA geographies; rounded model figures, not forecasts of prices. Zero for Edmonton means no modeled gap to the benchmark—not universal affordability."
    },
    {
      "id": "target",
      "title": "A share target is not an exit forecast",
      "subtitle": "Non-permanent resident stock · millions · illustrative arithmetic",
      "stat": "~690,000 share gap",
      "takeaway": "Permanent-resident transitions can reduce the share without departures.",
      "unit": "million",
      "kind": "bars",
      "labels": [
        "July 2026 NPRs",
        "5% at fixed population"
      ],
      "series": [
        {
          "name": "Resident count / arithmetic",
          "values": [
            2.779774,
            2.08992035
          ],
          "color": "#426b9b"
        }
      ],
      "source": "StatCan July 2026 stocks & IRCC 2026–2028 Levels Plan",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/corporate-initiatives/levels/supplementary-immigration-levels-2026-2028.html",
      "caveat": "5% × 41,798,407; illustrative fixed denominator. Current policy aims below 5% by end-2027. Not 690,000 people required to leave."
    }
  ]
}