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Volcker: the template for hiking through a recession

U.S. effective federal funds rate vs U.S. unemployment rate, monthly, 1970–Sept 2026

Unit: %
Compare series or markets · 2 selected
Volcker: the template for hiking through a recessionFed funds averaged 19.1% in June 1981; U.S. unemployment peaked at 10.8% in late 1982 after back-to-back recessions. Unit: %. Monthly averages; unemployment seasonally adjusted. Use left and right arrow keys to inspect observations. The data table follows the chart.Volcker: the template for hiking through a recessionEffective fed funds rateU.S. unemployment rate%0%5%10%15%20%Jan 1970May 1981Sep 1992Jan 2004May 2015Sep 2026Homies Research, using FRED (FEDFUNDS, UNRATE) · Through 2026-09Monthly averages; unemployment seasonally adjustedHOMIES RESEARCH
Sep 2026Effective fed funds rate 3.75%U.S. unemployment rate 4.2%

Fed funds averaged 19.1% in June 1981; U.S. unemployment peaked at 10.8% in late 1982 after back-to-back recessions.

Source: Homies Research, using FRED (FEDFUNDS, UNRATE). Reference: 2026-09. Release date not supplied by source feed. Retrieved 2026-10-27.

Monthly averages; unemployment seasonally adjusted · NBER recessions: Jan–Jul 1980 and Jul 1981–Nov 1982. FRED has no U.S. unemployment value for October 2025.

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View accessible data table · 2 series, 681 observations

Showing the latest 12 observations.

Volcker: the template for hiking through a recession. Unit: %. Monthly averages; unemployment seasonally adjusted
PeriodEffective fed funds rateU.S. unemployment rate
Oct 20254.09%—
Nov 20253.88%4.5%
Dec 20253.72%4.4%
Jan 20263.64%4.3%
Feb 20263.64%4.4%
Mar 20263.64%4.3%
Apr 20263.64%4.3%
May 20263.63%4.3%
Jun 20263.63%4.2%
Jul 20263.63%4.1%
Aug 20263.63%4.1%
Sep 20263.75%4.2%

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