Toronto's September: back over $1 million, still falling.

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GTA REALTORS® reported 5,040 salesthrough TRREB’s MLS® System in September 2026, down 9.0 per cent from September 2025. New listings fell even harder — 16,500, down 14.4 per cent. The average selling price was $1,006,409, down 5.1 per cent year over year, and the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark was down 4.7 per cent. TRREB put it down to uncertainty — about the economy, inflation and borrowing costs — keeping would-be buyers on the sidelines, with the October 26 municipal elections adding a policy question mark on top.

Year to date, the picture is steadier than any single month suggests: 47,115 sales through September is only 1.0 per cent behind 2025’s pace, while new listings are down 15.0 per cent and the year-to-date average price is down 4.8 per cent to $1,025,266. Fewer homes are coming to market, roughly the same number are selling, and prices are drifting lower rather than falling off a ledge.

Raw month-to-month comparisons in real estate are mostly the calendar talking — September always brings a wave of new listings after the summer lull. TRREB’s seasonally adjusted series remove that. On that basis, sales fell 5.2 per cent from August to 5,174, tied with February for the second-biggest monthly drop of the past year. New listings fell 3.8 per cent. The adjusted MLS® HPI slipped 0.5 per cent to $924,600, handing back the small gains from June and July.

The ratio of adjusted sales to adjusted new listings was 40.0 per cent in September — barely changed from August’s 40.6 per cent and actually tighter than the 36.9 per cent of a year ago, because sellers have retreated even faster than buyers. That puts the GTA right at the edge of buyer’s-market territory (below 40 per cent), not deep inside it.

The unadjusted average rose 1.3 per cent from August’s $993,410 to cross $1 million again. Don’t read that as a recovery: it’s mostly mix, as more detached homes trade in September. Seasonally adjusted, the average price fell 2.3 per cent to $1,006,305 — its largest monthly decline since January — and the benchmark, which prices the same typical home every month, kept edging lower. At $1,006,409 the average sits 24.6 per cent below the February 2022 peak of $1,334,544.

Zoom out and the trend is a slow grind, not a crash. Drag across the chart to zoom into any window:

In the City of Toronto, sales fell 5.4 per cent to 1,937 at an average of $1,034,320 (−5.2 per cent). In the rest of the GTA, sales fell twice as fast — 11.2 per cent to 3,103 — at an average of $988,986 (−5.1 per cent). The bigger gap is on the supply side: 905 sellers listed 17.4 per cent fewer homes than a year ago, against 9.3 per cent fewer in the 416. Price-wise, the two halves of the market are falling in lockstep.

Every home type sold less than a year ago, and every type was cheaper. Condo apartments led the price decline at −7.7 per cent board-wide, and −12.0 per cent in the 905, where they averaged $533,654. Detached homes fell 5.1 per cent to $1,292,016 — 7.6 per cent in the 416. Semi-detached homes were the exception: essentially flat at −0.2 per cent, and up 2.1 per cent inside Toronto, the only gain anywhere in the release.

The MLS® HPI strips out the mix of what sold, so it’s the better guide to what a typical home is worth. Every region and every housing type posted a year-over-year decline. South Simcoe County (−7.2 per cent) and York Region (−6.5 per cent) led the composite down, while Orangeville (−2.6 per cent) and Halton (−3.4 per cent) held up best. Apartments are the weak spot everywhere — down 13.7 per cent in South Simcoe and 11.9 per cent in Orangeville.

New listings were down 14.4 per cent year over year — the eighth straight month in which listings fell faster than sales — and active listings ended September at 26,131, down 11.1 per cent. That is the cushion under prices: owners who don’t need to sell aren’t listing into a soft market. The sales-to-new-listings trend ticked up to 37.8 per cent (34.6 per cent a year ago) and months of inventory held at 4.6 — balanced-to-soft, not a glut. Homes took 34 days to sell and closed at 98 per cent of asking.

The rate backdrop hasn’t moved: the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate held at 2.25 per cent through September, and the posted five-year rate at 6.09 per cent. This market is waiting on confidence, not on cheaper money.

Board-wide averages hide how different the GTA’s towns are right now. In Whitby and Ajax, about 45 per cent of new listings are selling and inventory is around three months — the tight end of balanced. In King, there are 11.4 months of inventory; Innisfil and Georgina sit above six. Toronto East homes sold over asking on average (101 per cent of list), while Georgina and King closed at 94 per cent.

The eight visuals for this month’s market video, in the order they’re narrated, each with the number to say while it’s on screen. Every chart is live, so scroll it top to bottom on screen share, or open any one full screen.

Figures are from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s Market Watch for September 2026 and its news release (both published October 6, 2026), including the release’s seasonally adjusted table and MLS® HPI summary. Charts are live embeds of the Homies Stats TRREB explorer , which parses every Market Watch back to 2011 into machine-readable series — 41 regions and municipalities, five home types. The seasonally adjusted series (sales_sa, ap_sa, nl_sa, hpi_sa) are new to the feed this month and grow with each release. TRREB’s year-over-year changes compare against a revised September 2025 (5,540 sales, $1,060,036 average), while the charts plot earlier months as first reported, so chart-computed changes can differ from the release by a fraction of a point. Active-listing and median changes in this article compare against September 2025 as first published.